[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 29 09:43:04 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Regions 1199(N18W48) and
1196(S23W32) produced 3 C-class flares. Solar wind speed was
a notable decrease in the density and a slight increase in
temperature. The IMF Bz ranged between 0nT and 3nT from 00-15UT
followed by a sustained southward period of -6nT to -4nT up until
the time of this report. There is a chance that solar wind speed
may increase late in the UT day on the 29 of April due to
reccurent coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to
remain low with slight chance of M class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11100121
Darwin 3 11110122
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 2 11000121
Canberra 0 0-------
Hobart 0 00000010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Apr 12 Unsettled
01 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the previous day
with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly Quiet over the next 24 hours
with the chance of Unsettled conditions late in the UT day with
the possible arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from
the recurrent coronal hole. Unsettled conditions with possible
Active periods are expected for 30th of April and 1st of May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 50 near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 45 near predicted monthly values
01 May 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the AUS/NZ
region during the last 24 hours. Some minor depressed periods
were observed at high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected
for 29 April. Possible degradations for high latitude locations
on 30 April and 1st May due to the expected increased in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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