[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 29 09:41:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Two
low C-class flares were observed from region 1110 (N20W30). Solar
wind speed varied between 450 and 550 km/s during the UT day
today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
mostly stayed positive around +5 nT during the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low to low levels for the
next 3 days with possibility of C-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22333211
Darwin 9 22333211
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 9 22333221
Canberra 6 11323200
Hobart 11 12433311
Casey(Ant) 13 3-433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1000 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
30 Sep 4 Quiet
01 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic
conditions may be expected on 29 September with the possibility
of activity levels declining to mostly quiet levels for the
following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations over
the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude circuits.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 29 Septmeber. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most locations
on 30 September and 1 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 31 near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 34 near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 34 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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