[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 29 09:41:17 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              83/24              83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Two 
low C-class flares were observed from region 1110 (N20W30). Solar 
wind speed varied between 450 and 550 km/s during the UT day 
today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
mostly stayed positive around +5 nT during the UT day. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low to low levels for the 
next 3 days with possibility of C-class flare activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22333211
      Darwin               9   22333211
      Townsville          10   22333222
      Learmonth            9   22333221
      Canberra             6   11323200
      Hobart              11   12433311
      Casey(Ant)          13   3-433222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1000 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
30 Sep     4    Quiet 
01 Oct     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic
conditions may be expected on 29 September with the possibility 
of activity levels declining to mostly quiet levels for the 
following two days thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations over 
the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude circuits. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 29 Septmeber. HF 
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most locations 
on 30 September and 1 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Sep    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 20%.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    31    near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    34    near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    34    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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