[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 28 09:31:54 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed varied between 450 and 500 km/s during the UT 
day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
fluctuated between +/-4 nT for most parts of the UT day. Region 
1109 (N22E01) showed further growth in the areas of coverage 
over this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at very 
low to low levels for the next 3 days with possibility of C-class 
flare activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12112232
      Darwin               7   -3112222
      Townsville           7   12222232
      Learmonth            8   12112333
      Canberra             2   00001220
      Hobart               5   01102322
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--22233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   1121 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
29 Sep     4    Quiet 
30 Sep     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic 
conditions may be expected on 28 September with the possibility 
of activity levels declining to mostly quiet levels for the 
following two days thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude 
circuits. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 28 
Septmeber. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations on 29 and 30 September. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Sep    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near monthly predicted values with periods of 
      depressions upto around  20% . 

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    32    near predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    34    near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    34    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    51500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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