[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 27 09:39:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed varied between 410 and 480 km/s
during the UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field stayed close to the normal value until
around 0700UT and then showed variations mostly between
+/-4 nT through the rest of the day. Region 1109 (N21E14)
showed growth in the areas of coverage as well as spot count
over this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at low
levels for the next 3 days with possibility of C-class flare
activity. There may be a slight chance of M-class flare from
region 1109 during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 11223322
Darwin 6 11113222
Townsville 9 12223332
Learmonth 10 11124332
Canberra 4 00113211
Hobart 6 10113321
Casey(Ant) 12 22332333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
28 Sep 4 Quiet
29 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 27 September
with the possibility of activity levels declining to mostly
quiet levels for the following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high
latitude circuits. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 34 near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 34 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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