[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              83/24              83/24

COMMENT: Region 1109 (N22W24) has decreased in size while region 
1111 (N23E55) was numbered. There is a moderate chance of C-class 
x-ray events. The solar wind speed declined to be around 450 km/s
at report issue, while the IMF Bz range was +/-5 nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet. Unsettled,
with isolated active levels observed at high latitudes in the
first half of the reporting period. 

Estimated Indices 29 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12212111
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   22112100
      Canberra             2   00301000
      Hobart               2   11112100
      Casey(Ant)           8   -3331111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1132 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep     5    Quiet 
01 Oct     5    Quiet 
02 Oct     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Sep    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      03-07 UT. No data 09-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% 03-08
      UT observed at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      09-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25%.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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