[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 8 09:30:33 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
with only a B4.4 class event from region 1105 at 0538UT. Solar
wind speed began to increase at 06UT from 350km/s to 500km/s
and is now ~450km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-6nT over the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low over the next
few days, with the chance of an isolated C-class flare from region
1105.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22132322
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 9 22232322
Learmonth 8 21123322
Canberra 4 20022212
Hobart 8 11132323
Casey(Ant) 11 23232332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2311 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
the next 3 days while solar wind velocity remains elevated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
09 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
10 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of depressed MUFs were noted during local day
and night for Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly
normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions. Expect near or slightly below monthly
predicted values for low to mid latitudes over the next three
days. Unsettled geomagnetic activity over the next two days is
expected to cause polar ionosphere conditions to degrade to Fair
and may slightly depress mid-latitude MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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