[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 7 09:52:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
a C2.5 class event from region 1105 at 1459UT. Solar wind speed
declined from 410km/s at 06UT to be 360km/s at the time of this
report. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between
+/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low
over the next few days, with Region 1105 expected to continue
producing B-class flares with a chance of an isolated C-class
flare.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
06/2110UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 23222212
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 6 22222212
Canberra 3 12111101
Hobart 5 22212112
Casey(Ant) 9 24-21222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0000 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 7 Quiet
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. An energetic ion enhancement was detected
in the ACE EPAM data at 2110UT which may indicate an increase
in geomagnetic activity over the next 36 hours. Mostly Quiet
conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible Unsettled
conditions for 08Sep-09Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
08 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs were noted during local day
for Equatorial regions and notable sporadic E. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions. Expect near or slightly below monthly predicted values
for the next three days. Possible Unsettled geomagnetic activity
over the next two days could cause polar ionosphere conditions
to degrade to Fair and may slightly depress mid-latitude MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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