[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 6 09:45:41 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was very turbulent for the first half
of the UT day and varied between 300 and 380 km/s. In the last
12 hours the Vsw became much less turbulent and rose steadily
from 300 towards 400 km/s, likely the onset of the expected high
speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from the recurrent coronal hole.
The last 6 hours has seen large swings north-south in IMF Bz
up to 10nt, also likely associated with the onset of the HSSWS.
AR11105 is expected to continue producing B-class flares with
a chance of an isolated C-class flare. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery
on the SOHO spacecraft showed a CME on the west limb first visible
4th Sept 1524-1954UT. STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery shows it as a
partial halo CME. This CME is not expected to be geo-effective
as it is not directed at Earth. This is confirmed by cosmic ray
data showing no Forbush decrease, indicating no CME between Sun
and Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11110013
Darwin 3 11110013
Townsville 6 12211123
Learmonth 3 11120012
Canberra 1 -1000002
Hobart 2 10010003
Casey(Ant) 5 23210112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 1000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was very turbulent for the first half
of the UT day and varied between 300 and 380 km/s. In the last
12 hours the Vsw became much less turbulent and rose steadily
from 300 towards 400 km/s, likely the onset of the expected high
speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from the recurrent coronal hole.
The last 6 hours has seen large swings north-south in IMF Bz
up to 10nt, also likely associated with the onset of the HSSWS.
Expect Unsettled geomagnetic conditions conditions 6th September,
with possible isolated cases of Active levels, particularly at
high latitudes. Expect this to continue for the following day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
07 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
08 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs were noted during local day
at low latitudes. Expect near or slightly below monthly predicted
values for the next three days. Unsetteld geomagnetic activity
over the next two days will cause polar ionosphere conditions
to degrade to Fair and may slightly depress mid-latitude MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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