[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 9 09:44:37 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
with only a B2.3 class event from region 1105 at 0048UT. Solar
wind speed declined from a maximum of ~475km/s at 05UT to be
360km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-4nT over the UT day. with a
sustained southward period between 13UT-18UT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next few days, with the slight
chance of an isolated C-class flare from region 1105.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22123321
Darwin 8 22123322
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 8 22123321
Canberra 5 11013310
Hobart 9 12124321
Casey(Ant) 10 23323321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 97 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2213 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Sep 7 Quiet
11 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
the next 24 hours and Quiet conditions for 10Sep-11Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were noted during local day for Equatorial
regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support
for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ, with some disturbed periods
for Antarctic regions. Expect near or slightly below monthly
predicted values for low to mid latitudes over the next three
days and possible disturbed polar ionospheric conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list