[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 29 10:26:47 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Active region 1117 magnetic complexity has simplified and therefore
expect a decrease in flare rate over the next three days. There
is a slight chance for a C-class flare during this period. LASCO
C3 imagery showed a CME on the northeast limb first observed
at 28/0842UT. It is not expected to be geo-effective. The Solar
wind speed decreased 480 to 420 km/s during the last 24 hours.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was between
+/-3nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range or slightly
below for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21212121
Darwin 2 11110---
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 4 -----211
Canberra 1 10102000
Hobart 3 112120--
Casey(Ant) 4 -----121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 1022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions today, 29 October,
and possibly tomorrow. The Unsettled with isolated cases of Active
to Minor Storm conditions at high latitudes are pending possible
glancing impact of CME on Earth's magnetic field late in the
UT day. The CME occurred on 26 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly depressed MUFs of 10%-25% observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions. Expect this trend to continue or improve
slightly over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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