[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 28 10:17:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
a C-class x-ray flare observed at 27/1704UT from active region
(AR) 1117. In addition, several B-class flares were observed
from this region. AR 1117 magnetic complexity is simplifying,
therefore expect a decrease in flare rate, mostly B-class flares
with a slight chance for a isolated C-class flare over the next
three days. LASCO C3 imagery showed a CME on the north limb first
observed at 27/0754UT. STEREO imagery indicates it is a backside
event at a high northern latitude. The Solar wind speed decreased
from 570-480 km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-3nT. Expect
the solar wind to continue to subside over the UT day as the
coronal rotates westward out of its geo-effective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22122122
Darwin 5 22121122
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 5 22122121
Canberra 3 11112021
Hobart 4 12122111
Casey(Ant) 8 ---32131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3222 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 4 Quiet
29 Oct 12 Unsettled
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet conditions today, 28 October. On
29-30 October expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions due to impact
of CME with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm conditions
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly depressed MUFs of 10%-25% observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions. Expect improving conditions today, 28
October, with a return to near predicted MUFs on 29 October.
On 30 October expect possible degraded conditions again due to
increased geomagnetic activity induced by expected CME glancing
impact.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 602 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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