[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 27 10:49:19 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
two C-class x-ray flares observed at 26/0113UT from active region
1117 and at 26/0814UT from active region 1119. In addition, several
B-class flares were observed from active regions 1115, 1117,
and 1119. The B6.3 x-ray flare produced by region 1115 occurring at
26/0316UT appears to be associted with CME observed on Lasco C2
imagery around same time period. Stereo COR1 and COR2 imagery
indicate that the CME is earthward directed with possible glancing
impact with Earth's magentic field in apporximately 3 days time.
Expect current flaring trend to continue from active region 1117 for
the next three days. The Solar wind speed ranged between 660-550 km/s
during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was between +/-4nT. Expect the solar wind to slowly
subside over the UT day as the coronal hole rotates westward out of
its geo-effective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32222222
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 6 22212222
Canberra 5 21211221
Hobart 6 22221222
Casey(Ant) 14 4--32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2111 2131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 6 Quiet
28 Oct 4 Quiet
29 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next two days.
On 29 October expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions due to impact
of CME with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm conditions
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly depressed MUFs of 10%-20% observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions. Expect similar conditions today, 27 October,
with a return to near predicted MUFs the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 611 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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