[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 30 10:46:31 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with several B-class x-ray flares observed from active region
1117. Expect this trend to continue with a moderate chance for
an isolated C-class flare over the next three days. Solar wind
speed decreased 440 to 340 km/s during the last 24 hours. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was between
+/-3nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Townsville 12 33323322
Learmonth 4 22102201
Canberra 2 11102100
Casey(Ant) 8 33312201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 6 Quiet
01 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible isolated
cases of Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes today,
30 October, pending possible glancing impact of CME on Earth's
magnetic field late. The CME occurred on 26 October. Otherwise,
expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionosphere is slowly recovering from high speed solar
wind affects. Expect a return to predicted monthly MUF values
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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