[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 20 10:53:19 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
region 1112 the source of a C1.3 class flare at 0651UT and a
C1.1 event at 1014UT. Region 1112 along with regions 1113 and
1115 were the source of numerous B-class events throughout the
UT day. Two new regions were numbered today, 1117 (N25E74) and
1118 (N16E62). Low to Very Low Solar activity is expected for
the next 2 days. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar
wind increased from 380km/s to be 440km/s at the time of this
report due to a small coronal hole. Solar wind parameters are
expected to remain slightly elevated over the next few days due
to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 33322112
Darwin 7 32312112
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 6 32222111
Canberra 4 22311001
Hobart 7 23321111
Casey(Ant) 12 44-32112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2001 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours with Active periods for high latitudes. Similar
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days
as numerous coronal holes rotate into geoeffective position during
this forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 20% during local day observed for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours,
with otherwise normal ionospheric support for other regions.
Depressed MUF's of ~20% possible for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions during local day for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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