[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 21 10:31:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 83/24 82/23
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
region 1112 the source of a C1.5 class flare at 1150UT as well
as numerous B-class events. Low to Very Low Solar activity is
expected for the next 24 hours as region 1112 rotates of disc,
followed by Very Low activity for 22Oct-23Oct. Bz ranged between
+/-4nT over the UT day. Solar wind ranged between 420km/s-440km/s
from 00UT to 21UT before falling to 400km/s at 22UT. Solar wind
parameters are expected to remain at these levels for the next
3 days due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21123112
Darwin 4 11122112
Townsville 12 32333232
Learmonth 4 22112111
Canberra 3 20013101
Hobart 3 10113101
Casey(Ant) 7 3--22122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2221 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours with Active periods for high latitudes. Similar
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days
due to small to moderate sized recurrent coronal holes moving
into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 20% during local day observed for
Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions over the
last 24 hours. Depressed periods during local night for Equatorial
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with depressed MUF's of ~20% possible for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 91100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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