[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 19 10:53:22 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
region 1112 producing numerous B and C class flares, notably
a C1.2 class flare at 1140UT, a long duration C2.5 flare at 1643UT
and was the likely source of a C1.2 flare at 2139UT. Region 1112
has the chance of producing C and/or M class xray flares over
the next 24 hours. Bz ranged between +5nT and -4nT over the UT
day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase over the next 24
hours due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a geoeffective coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22221133
Darwin 5 21110123
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 7 22111133
Canberra 3 10011023
Hobart 5 11121023
Casey(Ant) 10 33311133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2343 1023
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
20 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase in
the next 24 hours due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind
stream from a geoeffective coronal hole. Mostly Unsettled conditions
with Active periods expected for the next 3 days with isolated
storm periods for high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 20% during local day observed for
all regions over the last 24 hours, with otherwise normal ionospheric
support. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected over the
next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's of ~20% for Northewrn
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for
Antarctic regions stations. Chance of fadeouts for the next three
days due to expected increase in flare activity associated with
active solar region 1112.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 78600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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