[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 7 10:30:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: The visible disc appears spotless. STEREO A images show a
slow moving CME at 0624 UT; any effect is expected around the 12
Oct. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21123211
Darwin 4 21112111
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 4 21112211
Canberra 2 00013100
Hobart 5 11123210
Casey(Ant) 11 33323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1232 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 7 Mostly quiet. Unsettled at higher latitudes.
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressions to 30% 21-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressions to 25% 01-02 and 19-21 UT at Darwin and
02-06 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
03-07 UT at Brisbane and 01-08 and 17-21 UT at Norfolk
Is. Spread F at Hobart 15-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
08 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
09 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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