[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 6 10:29:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 78/17
COMMENT: Region 1111 (N24W18) has decayed. There exists a slight
chance of C-class flare activity. Solar wind speed increased to
340 km/s while the north-south IMF range was +/-7 nT. Solar wind
speed is likely to increase to average levels before declining
again, while the IMF is expected to be undisturbed over the
forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22321111
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 7 22322221
Learmonth 6 22222112
Canberra 1 01210000
Hobart 4 12311101
Casey(Ant) 9 33321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 7 Mostly quiet. Unsettled at higher latitudes.
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Enhancements to 25% 10-13 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Enhanced to 20% 08-16 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed to 25% 00-06 UT at Darwin and 04-06 UT at
Townsville. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Depressions to 20% at Brisbane 03-05 UT and Norfolk
Is. 00-05, 20-22 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Depressions to 25% 09-13 and 18-22 UT at Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
07 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
08 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 21600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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