[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 6 10:29:59 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              78/17

COMMENT: Region 1111 (N24W18) has decayed. There exists a slight 
chance of C-class flare activity. Solar wind speed increased to
340 km/s while the north-south IMF range was +/-7 nT. Solar wind
speed is likely to increase to average levels before declining 
again, while the IMF is expected to be undisturbed over the
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22321111
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           7   22322221
      Learmonth            6   22222112
      Canberra             1   01210000
      Hobart               4   12311101
      Casey(Ant)           9   33321221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     7    Mostly quiet. Unsettled at higher latitudes. 
07 Oct     5    Quiet 
08 Oct     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Oct    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
      Enhancements to 25% 10-13 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Enhanced to 20% 08-16 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed to 25% 00-06 UT at Darwin and 04-06 UT at
      Townsville. Near predicted monthly values at other
      times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
      Depressions to 20% at Brisbane 03-05 UT and Norfolk
      Is. 00-05, 20-22 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Depressions to 25% 09-13 and 18-22 UT at Casey.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
07 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
08 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    21600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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