[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 10

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: The visible disc appears spotless. LASCO and STEREO 
images show a CME on the north-west limb around 1024 UT; it is 
unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed. 
There may be a moderate disturbance to parameters over days one 
and two with the passage of a small coronal hole wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211101
      Darwin               3   11111102
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            3   11211101
      Canberra             1   00111000
      Hobart               3   01222001
      Casey(Ant)           5   32211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1022 3231     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct     7    Mostly quiet. Some unsettled periods. 
09 Oct     7    Mostly quiet. Some unsettled periods. 
10 Oct     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Oct    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      14-17 UT. Depressed 35% 19-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-04 and 13-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      04-08 and 19-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      00-09 UT. Depressions to 20% 19-21 UT Brisbane and
      Norfolk Is. Spread F observed at Hobart 08-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
09 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
10 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    36200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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