[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 29 10:49:41 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day
today. Solar wind speed stayed between 420 and 480 km/s
for most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field showed fluctuations
mostly on the positive side upto around 10nT until 0500
UT and then stayed close to the normal value for the
remaining parts of the day. Solar wind stream may remain
strengthened on 29 November due to the effect of a coronal
hole. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
28/1535UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 43322222
Darwin 11 43321222
Townsville 9 33312222
Learmonth 11 43322222
Canberra 8 33312211
Hobart 9 33312221
Casey(Ant) 16 5-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 12 0000 1144
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased upto active
levels during the first half of the UT day today due
to the strengthening of the solar wind stream due to
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
The effect of this coronal hole may keep geomagnetic
activity enhanced upto unsettled levels on 29 November.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to then gradually
decline to unsettled through to quiet levels during
the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed on high
latitude locations over the last 24 hours possibly
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. Periods of minor to mild MUF
depressions may be possible on high latitudes on 29
November due to possible continued enhancement in
geomagnetic activity on this day. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected for the following two days
thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 15%
30 Nov 12 near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on
27 November and is current for interval 28-29 November.
Some MUF depressions were observed in the southern Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisation
as the solar activity has stayed at very low levels for
several days. Further depressions in MUFs may be possible
in Souther Aus/NZ regions on 29 November due to some
possibility of enhancemd geomagnetic activity on this day.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
following two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 34500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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