[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 30 10:49:51 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed fell from 440km/s to be 380km/s at the time
of this report. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between 0 and -5nT from 00UT to 17UT and +/-4nT
up until the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at this level for the next 3 days. Solar activity is
expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11122021
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 4 21112022
Canberra 2 00112011
Hobart 3 11212011
Casey(Ant) 7 ---31131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2210 1231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 4 Quiet
01 Dec 4 Quiet
02 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with
possible Unsettled periods while solar wind parameters decline
as the effects of the current coronal hole subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
last 24 hours for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Depressed periods
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions as well as Antarctic regions.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with
possible depressions of 10%-20% for Northern AUS regions and
Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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