[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 28 10:44:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day
today. Solar wind speed stayed around 350 km/s until 1400
UT and then increased to 500 km/s by the time of this report.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
close to the normal value until around 1400UT and then showed
significant fluctuations between +/-12 nT during the rest of
the UT day. These variations in the solar wind parameters are
possibly due to the presence of a small coronal hole in a
geoeffective position. This effect may keep the solar wind
stream strengthened on 28 November. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 11111244
Darwin 9 11111244
Townsville 5 211122--
Learmonth 12 11112254
Canberra 4 10001133
Hobart 4 00101133
Casey(Ant) 13 23321144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
29 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
30 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased upto active levels
during the second half of the UT day today due to the
strengthening of the solar wind stream due to a high speed
solar wind stream from a small coronal hole. The effect of
this coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity enhanced
upto active levels on 28 November, mostly unsettled on 29
November and then return to mostly quiet levels on 30 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed on most locations
over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisations as the
solar activity has stayed at very low levels for several days.
These depressions are expected to continue for the next three
days due to expected very low levels of solar activity. Further
depressions in MUFs may be possible at high and mid latitude
locations on 28 and 29 November due an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 0 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
29 Nov 2 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Nov 4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak
ionisation as the solar activity has stayed at very low levels
for several days. Further depressions in MUFs may be expected
on 28 and 29 November due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days and due to continued very low solar
activity levels. Minor to mild depressions in MUFs may be
possible on 30 November due to the expectation of solar
activity to continue to stay at very low levels until then.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 36200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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