[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 20 12:49:46 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day. Two B-class
x-ray flares were observed during the period. Expect current
trend to continue with a slight chance of a C-class flare. The
solar wind speed decreased from 550 to 350 km/s over the last
24 hours and is presently 350 km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +4/-2nT. LASCO C3 imagery shows
a CME early in the UT day, 19 Novemeber on the south east limb.
The CME is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 3 11111120
Learmonth 3 21111111
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11110000
Casey(Ant) 5 2-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 4 Quiet
21 Nov 4 Quiet
22 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Mostly Quiet in the Australian
and Antarctic regions. Expect this trend to continue over the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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