[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 19 10:15:14 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day. Several
B-class x-ray flares were observed during the period. Expect
current trend to continue with a slight chance of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed increased from 440 to 590 km/s over the
last 24 hours and is presently 560 km/s. Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-5nT. Expect
the solar wind to remain elevated over the next three days due
to high speed solar wind stream induced by recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22232122
Darwin 6 22222122
Learmonth 6 22222122
Canberra 4 11221121
Casey(Ant) 13 2--43232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1310 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region with isolated cases of Active conditions in
the Antarctic region. Expect this trend to continue over the
next three days due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 30 near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 30 near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Presently IPS is experiencing technical difficulties
with acquiring data from our network. The T index is based on
limited data mostly located in the low latitudes and antarctic
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 99000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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