[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day. Several 
B-class x-ray flares were observed during the period. Expect 
current trend to continue with a moderate chance of C-class flares. 
The solar wind speed decreased from 500 to 420 km/s over the 
last 24 hours and is presently 440 km/s. Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +4/-3nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222121
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Learmonth            5   22222111
      Canberra             2   12110010
      Casey(Ant)          11   34-22132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   3101 2311     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov     4    Quiet 
20 Nov     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled in the 
Australian region with cases of Active conditions in the Antarctic 
region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions over the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Nov    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 
20 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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