[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 10

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              79/19              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day. Two B-class 
x-ray flares were observed during the period. Expect current trend 
to continue with a slight chance of a C-class flare. The solar wind 
speed ranged from 340 to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours and is 
presently 390 km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
ranged between +5/-4nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221111
      Townsville           4   1222111-
      Learmonth            5   12222111
      Canberra             3   21211001
      Hobart               4   02311011
      Casey(Ant)           7   2--32212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     4    Quiet 
22 Nov     4    Quiet 
23 Nov     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Mostly Quiet in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions. Expect this trend to continue over the next 
three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Nov    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov    30    near predicted monthly values 
22 Nov    30    near predicted monthly values 
23 Nov    30    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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