[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 15 10:12:31 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active
regions 1123 and 1124 produced a C-clas x-ray flare and several
B-class flares over this period. Expect this trend to continue
with a moderate chance of a C-class flare. The solar wind
increased from 450 to 660 km/s over the UT day due to a coronal
hole rotating into a geo-effective location on the solar disc.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-5nT. Arrival of CMEs occurring on 11-12 November may
also influence the solar wind and near Earth environment over
the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21111322
Darwin 6 31211222
Townsville 6 21211322
Learmonth 8 31111323
Canberra 4 21100222
Hobart 6 21111322
Casey(Ant) 13 ----2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 2011 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 24 active
16 Nov 20 active
17 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 15-16 November. The geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region with cases of
Minor to Major Storm activity at high latitudes due to increase
in solar wind speed induced by coronal hole late in the UT day.
Expect this trend to continue with isolated cases of Active conditions
in the Australian region as well over the next two days. Note,
the arrival of CMEs is expected during this period as well.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
16 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Nov 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 15-17 November. Expect mostly depressions
of 10 to 20 with occasional depressions to 30% probable at all
latitudes during the next three days, due to increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 92500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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