[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 16 10:26:49 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 1124 produced B and C-class x-ray flares over this period.
Expect this trend to continue with a moderate chance of C-class
flares. The solar wind speed ranged from 680 to 570 km/s over
the UT day and is presently 640 Km/s. Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22132113
Darwin 6 32122112
Townsville 7 22222113
Learmonth 8 32131113
Canberra 6 23121013
Hobart 7 23221013
Casey(Ant) 14 ---42214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1200 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
17 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 15-16 November. The geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region with cases of
Active to Minor Storm activity at high latitudes due to increase
in solar wind speed. Expect this trend to continue over the UT
day, 16 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 15-17 November. Expect mostly depressions
of 10 to 20 with occasional depressions to 30% probable at all
latitudes during the next two days, due to increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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