[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 14 10:39:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity decreased with region 1123 (S23W24) producing
a C1.3 event. Available STEREO images show two Earth directed
CMEs erupting before 1000 and 1900 UT. Solar wind parameters
continued to quieten through the period. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be disturbed over the forecast period due to
the effects of CME events and an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21112222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 6 21212222
Learmonth 5 21112222
Canberra 4 11112122
Hobart 5 12112122
Casey(Ant) 8 2--22232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 15 4334 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes.
15 Nov 20 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes.
16 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 13 November
and is current for interval 14-16 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
15 Nov Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
16 Nov Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
06-11 UT
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
08-12 and 18-20 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
01-03 and 06-07 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
mostly 00-07 and 11-20 UT. Night spread F observed at
Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
enhancments to 35% at Casey and depressions to 25%
01-07 and 12-16 UT at Macquarie Is.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
15 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
16 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 13 November
and is current for interval 14-16 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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