[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 13 10:40:57 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Region 1123 (S22W10) produced a number of C-class events,
largest a C4.6. M-class events are possible. STEREO A and B images
show three CMEs from the southern hemisphere which are expected
to be geo-effective in around five days. Solar wind parameters
quietened through the period although speed remained moderate
around 500 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed
over the forecast period due to the effects of CME events and
an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 3223420-
Darwin 10 2223420-
Townsville 13 222442--
Learmonth 15 3223530-
Canberra 8 2223320-
Hobart 14 2334421-
Casey(Ant) 27 4-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3123 4324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels
mostly at high latitudes.
14 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes.
15 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancments to 25%
07-09 UT, depressions to 20% 15-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 50%
02-08 and 11-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed to 40% 00-08 UT then near predicted monthly
values at Townsville. Near predicted monthly values
00-01 UT at Darwin; no data 02-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
00-08 UT Brisbane, Canberra, Sydney, 00-01 UT Norfolk
Is., 05-07, 13-20 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressed to 25%
00-10, 16 UT at Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%.
14 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
15 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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