[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 12 10:33:09 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov:  85/27

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              84/26

COMMENT: Region 1123 (S22E03) produced a number of C-class events, 
largest a C4.7, with nearby region 1121 (S20W13) contributing 
a C1.1 event and region 1124 (N14E19) also active. Region 1125 
(N19E34) was numbered. There is a slight chance of M-class flares. 
STEREO images show a number of fast moving CMEs from the southern 
hemisphere, presumably related to activity from regions 1121/1123. 
Solar wind parameters continued to be disturbed with speed increasing 
to 500 km/s and the north-south IMF component ranging between 
+11 and -10 nT. The disturbance appears to be CME related. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over the forecast 
period due to the effects of CMEs from 08/09 and 11th, and an 
equatorial coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32233323
      Darwin              11   32233232
      Townsville          11   32233322
      Learmonth           12   32233332
      Canberra            10   22233223
      Hobart              11   22233323
      Casey(Ant)          16   44433223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 0123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     7    Quiet to unsettled 
13 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels 
                mostly at high latitudes. 
14 Nov    15    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels. 
                Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Nov    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      18-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      19-20 UT at Darwin and to 35% 19-23 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      19-23 UT at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. and 15-16 and 23
      UT at Hobart. Night spread F observed at Hobart 14-18 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      mostly 06-22 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
13 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 25%. 
14 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    22200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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