[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 11 10:30:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 85/27
COMMENT: Region 1121 (S19W04) has declined, 1122 (N14W53) is
stable and new regions 1123 (S23E16) and 1124 (N14E38) were numbered.
Regions 1121 and 1123 were the most active, producing a number
of sub-flares. There is a slight chance of an M-class flare.
STEREO images show a CME from the northern hemisphere around
0800 UT and possibly another from the southern hemisphere around
1500 UT. Solar wind parameters became mildly disturbed after
1600 UT with the north-south IMF component ranging between +8
and -10 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed days one and two, increasing in activity day three due
to the effects of the CME on 9 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11110223
Darwin 6 22111223
Townsville 4 11110222
Learmonth 4 11000223
Canberra 2 01000112
Hobart 2 00100122
Casey(Ant) 10 23321133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1211 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 5 Quiet
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Possible isolated active levels day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly with depressions to 25%, 03-05
and 15-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%,
00-03 and 22-23 UT at Darwin and 00, 19 and 21-23 UT
at Townsville. Enhancements to 50% 10-14 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
at Perth, 01-09 UT and 21-23 UT at Norfolk Is. Spread
F at Hobart 10-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%,
15-17 UT at Macquarie Is. and 30% 22-23 UT at Scott
Base.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% probable at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 49800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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