[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 10 10:30:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Region 1121 (S19E08) has further decreased in area while
region 1122 (N13W43) has increased in area. There is the slight
possibility of an M-class flare. STEREO images show a CME around
08/2300 UT which may result in disturbance around 13 Nov. Solar
wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the
forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 3 11111112
Canberra 2 21011000
Hobart 2 12111000
Casey(Ant) 6 34421121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0010 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 6 Quiet
11 Nov 5 Quiet
12 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Occasional unsettled periods possible day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
02-05 UT. No data 13-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
18-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
00-01, 15-17 and 23 UT at Darwin and 00-01 and 22-23 UT
at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
00-01, 17-21 and 23 UT at Brisbane and 00-06 UT at
Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
13-17 UT at Macquarie Is. and to 20% 10-11 UT at Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% probable at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 44600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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