[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 9 10:30:23 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 87/30
COMMENT: Region 1121 (S18E23) has decreased in size and complexity.
Region 1122 (N14W31) appears stable. ACE data shows the solar
wind becoming disturbed around 0700 UT with conditions slowly
settling. Wind speed ranged between 270 to 390 km/s and the
north-south IMF component ranged between +/-9 nT. Conditions should
be quiet over the forecast period with the possibility of M-class
flare actvity from region 1121.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21223211
Darwin 7 21223212
Townsville 8 21323221
Learmonth 7 22223211
Canberra 5 01223111
Hobart 4 11212211
Casey(Ant) 8 32223221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 6 Quiet
11 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Occasional unsettled periods possible days one and two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions 15-35%
01-03 and 14-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions 15-35%
03, 13-17 and 21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 15-30%
00-02 and 23 UT at Darwin and 23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
02-06 UT at Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
12, 14-17 UT at Macquarie Is.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% probable at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 15200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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