[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 9 10:30:23 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              87/30

COMMENT: Region 1121 (S18E23) has decreased in size and complexity. 
Region 1122 (N14W31) appears stable. ACE data shows the solar 
wind becoming disturbed around 0700 UT with conditions slowly 
settling. Wind speed ranged between 270 to 390 km/s and the
north-south IMF component ranged between +/-9 nT. Conditions should
be quiet over the forecast period with the possibility of M-class
flare actvity from region 1121. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21223211
      Darwin               7   21223212
      Townsville           8   21323221
      Learmonth            7   22223211
      Canberra             5   01223111
      Hobart               4   11212211
      Casey(Ant)           8   32223221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   1000 0010     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     5    Quiet 
10 Nov     6    Quiet 
11 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Occasional unsettled periods possible days one and two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Nov    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions 15-35%
      01-03 and 14-18 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions 15-35%
      03, 13-17 and 21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 15-30%
      00-02 and 23 UT at Darwin and 23 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
      02-06 UT at Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      12, 14-17 UT at Macquarie Is.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov    25    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov    25    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov    25    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% probable at all latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 291 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    15200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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