[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 8 10:35:51 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 1121
(S18E36) produced a C-5 flare at 0141UT. Solar wind speed stayed
between 280 and 300 km/s for most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field mostly
ranged between +/-3 nT today. Solar activity is expected to stay
at low to moderate levels for the next three days. More flares
upto M-class may be possible from region 1121 over the next 3
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 3 11111121
Learmonth 3 21001112
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 1 10000011
Casey(Ant) 6 23310121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
09 Nov 4 Quiet
10 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today.
Recurrence pattern suggests a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels on 8 November. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels on
09 and 10 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moslty normal HF conditions with some MUF
depressions on mid latitudes were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for most locations
for the next 3 days with some possibility of minor depressions
in MUFs on high latitude stations on 8 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 16 near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 18 near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions are
expected for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 14700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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