[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 5 10:17:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, 04 October.
Active Region (AR) 1121 (S20E69) produced B and C class X-ray
flares during this period. Based on previous rotation as AR 1112
and observed activity on the limb, expect this region to continue
to produce B and C class flares with a moderate chance of an
isolated M-class X-ray flare. AR 1120 (N38E08) continues to decay
and is not expected to produce any significant flares. Solar
wind speed varied between 340 and 280 km/s during the the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +2/-4nT. Expect this trend to continue today with
solar wind speed in this range or slightly above.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11121101
Darwin 4 21121111
Townsville 3 11121101
Learmonth 3 11021202
Canberra 2 01021100
Hobart 4 11131101
Casey(Ant) 7 23311212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 4 Quiet
06 Nov 4 Quiet
07 Nov 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 15 near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 63600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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