[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 4 10:20:48 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
Previously M-flare producing region 1112 produced two
C-class flares (a C3.8 peaked at 0611UT and a C4.9 peaked
at 1221UT). Solar wind speed varied between 310 and 350 km/s
for most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field mostly varied between zero and
-5 nT during this period. Low lelvels of solar activity may
be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22212121
Darwin 5 22212121
Townsville 5 --212121
Learmonth 4 12111121
Canberra 3 11212010
Hobart 3 -1212010
Casey(Ant) 7 3--21122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0011 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 4 Quiet
05 Nov 4 Quiet
06 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels today.
Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs were observed at high and
some mid latitude locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near monthly predicted values to depressed by
15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 14 near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 14 near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 14 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 52000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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