[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 4 10:20:48 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. 
Previously M-flare producing region 1112 produced two 
C-class flares (a C3.8 peaked at 0611UT and a C4.9 peaked 
at 1221UT). Solar wind speed varied between 310 and 350 km/s 
for most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field mostly varied between zero and 
-5 nT during this period. Low lelvels of solar activity may 
be expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212121
      Darwin               5   22212121
      Townsville           5   --212121
      Learmonth            4   12111121
      Canberra             3   11212010
      Hobart               3   -1212010
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--21122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0011 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov     4    Quiet 
05 Nov     4    Quiet 
06 Nov     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels today. 
Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs were observed at high and 
some mid latitude locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Nov    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near monthly predicted values to depressed by 
      15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov    14    near predicted monthly values 
05 Nov    14    near predicted monthly values 
06 Nov    14    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in 
the Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected for this region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    52000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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