[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 3 10:29:57 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Very low solar activity observed over the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed varied between 320 and 360 km/s for
most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT during
this period. Solar activity is expected to be at very low
levels on 03 and 04 November and at very low to low levels
on 05 November as the previously M-class flare producing
region 1112 returns to the visible solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12212111
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 15 -3333333
Learmonth 4 22112101
Canberra 1 01101000
Hobart 4 11212111
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0110 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 4 Quiet
04 Nov 4 Quiet
05 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels
today. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs were observed at some
mid latitude locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 18 near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 18 near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 61200 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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