[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 2 10:39:23 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with a C1 class x-ray flare at 0443UT from region 1117 that
passed the limb at lat N22. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 360 to 320 km/s over the UT day today and the
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
positive upto around 8 nT during this period. Solar activity
is expected to be at very low to low levels on 02 November
and at very low levels for the following 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 23322112
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 7 22323102
Canberra 5 02312012
Hobart 6 12312112
Casey(Ant) 11 34422111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0201 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 6 Quiet
03 Nov 4 Quiet
04 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet to unsettled
levels today. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs were observed at high and
some mid latitude locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 22 near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 22 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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