[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 1 10:26:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
a C1.8 class x-ray flare at 31/0318UT and a C5.7 class x-ray
flare at 31/0431UT from active region (AR) 1117. Several B-class
flares were also observed during this period. Expect B-class
flares with a moderate chance of an isolated C-class flare over
the next two days as AR 1117 rotates around the western limb
of the Sun. Solar wind speed ranged from 380 to 340 km/s during
the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was between +8/-5nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in
this range or slightly above for the next three days. LASCO C2
imagery showed a CME on the west limb first observed at 30/2337UT.
STEREO imagery showed it to be a farside of the Sun event and
not geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23233222
Darwin 10 23233222
Townsville 16 343333-3
Learmonth 10 23233222
Canberra 8 13233121
Hobart 8 13233121
Casey(Ant) 7 2--32112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1200
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 6 Quiet
02 Nov 6 Quiet
03 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions at all latitudes with some isolated
cases of Unsettled conditions at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions at all latitudes for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 70500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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