[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 6 10:49:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6 04/2359UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    1331UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              85/27              86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 
1121 (S18E58) produced one M-class (M1/1329UT) and a C9.7 (at 
0056UT). The region also produced an M1 flare at 2358UT the previous 
day. More flares upto M-class may be possible from this region 
over the next 3 days. Solar wind speed stayed around 300km/s 
until 1400UT and then rose to 380 km/s. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +2/-4nT. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at low to moderate levels for the next three 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11221211
      Darwin               5   22121212
      Townsville           3   10211210
      Learmonth            4   11112212
      Canberra             1   10111100
      Hobart               3   11211200
      Casey(Ant)           8   23232211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1101 2001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov     4    Quiet 
07 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Nov     7    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today. 
Similar level of activity may be expected for 6 November. 
Recurrence pattern suggests a possible rise in geomagnetic 
activity to unsettled levels  with some possibility of 
isolated active periods on 7 and 8 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Moslty normal HF conditions with some MUF depressions 
on mid latitudes were observed today. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days with the 
possibility of minor to mild depressions in MUFs on high and 
some mid latitude stations on 7 and 8 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov    14    near predicted monthly values 
07 Nov    12    near predicted monthly values 
08 Nov    12    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in the 
Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for this region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    20600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list