[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 28 09:46:14 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last
24 hours. Solar wind stream did not get as strong as
previously anticipated. Solar wind speed initially
increased from 340 to 380 km/s and then gradually
declined to around 310 km/s by 2330 UT. The Bz component
stayed between +/-3 nT for most parts of the UT day today.
The CME activity observed on 24 May may be expected to
strengthen the solar wind stream on 28 May. Recurrent
pattern also suggests the possibility of strengthening
of solar wind stream on 29 and 30 May too. Solar activity
is expected to remain mostly at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 1 10110001
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 1 11110000
Canberra 2 00300002
Hobart 0 00010000
Casey(Ant) 2 11110111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 15 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
29 May 14 Unsettled to active
30 May 12 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 26 May and
is current for interval 27-28 May. Mostly quiet conditions
with some unsettled periods were observed in the Australian
region today. Unsettled to active periods with some possibility
of isolated minor storm periods may be expected on 28 May
due to the CME activity observed on 24 May. Recurrent pattern
suggests possible enhancements on 29 and 30 May too.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normalto fair HF conditions were observed
on 27 May with sporadic E-layer interferences at times. HF
conditions may show minor to moderate degradations from 28
to 30 May due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
29 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
30 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 26
May and is current for interval 27-28 May. Mild MUF depressions
were observed in the Australian region due to the lower EUV
levels emitted from the sun, resulting from a low number of
sunspots on the visible solar disc. Minor to moderated
degradations in HF conditions may be expected from 28 to 30
May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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