[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 29 09:53:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
A weak shock in solar wind was observed due to the previously
observed CME activity. This shock increased the solar wind speed
from 320 to 380 km/s. Solar wind speed then stayed around 370
km/s for the rest of the day. The Bz component of IMF stayed
between +/-5 nT for most parts of the UT day today. The CME
activity observed on 24 May may keep the solar wind stream slightly
strengthened on 29 May. Recurrent pattern also suggests the
possibility of strengthening of solar wind stream on 29 and 30
May too. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very
low levels for the next 3 days. A possible weak shock was observed
in the solar wind at 0202UT on 28 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 11 23234122
Darwin 10 24223122
Townsville 15 33334233
Learmonth 14 33334123
Canberra 6 22223002
Hobart 10 23234112
Casey(Ant) 8 23223211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 2000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 14 Unsettled to Active
30 May 12 Unsettled
31 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions observed in the
Australian region today. Unsettled to active periods with some
possibility of isolated minor storm period may be expected on
29 May due to the CME activity observed on 24 May. Recurrent
pattern also suggests possible enhancements on 29 and 30 May
too.
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0258UT on 28 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed on
28 May with sporadic E-layer interferences at times. HF conditions
may show minor to moderate degradations from 29 May to 31 May
due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
30 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
31 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from a low number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Minor
to moderated degradations in HF conditions may be expected from
29 to 31 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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