[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 27 09:44:06 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed varied between 300 and 360 km/s
and the Bz component between +/-4 nT for most parts of
the UT day today. The CME activities observed on 23 and
24 May may be expected to strengthen the solar wind stream
on 27 and possibly 28 May.Solar activity is expected to
remain mostly at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22211211
Darwin 5 23211111
Townsville 14 33332333
Learmonth 5 22211211
Canberra 1 11000100
Hobart 3 12111101
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 15 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
28 May 15 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
29 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 25 May and
is current for interval 26-27 May. Mostly quiet conditions
with some unsettled periods were observed in the Australian
region today. Unsettled to active periods with some possibility
of isolated minor storm periods may be expected on 27 and 28
May due to the CME activities observed on 23 and 24 May.
Conditions may be expected to return to unsettled and then to
quiet levels on 29 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on
26 May with sporadic E-layer interferences at times. HF
conditions may show minor to moderate degradations on 27
and 28 May due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic
activity during this period. HF conditions are expected
to return to mostly normal on low and mid latitude locations
with the possibility of some degradation at high latitudes
on 29 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 6 about 20% below predicted monthly values
28 May 6 about 20% below predicted monthly values
29 May 8 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on
25 May and is current for interval 27 May only. Mild MUF
depressions were observed in the Australian region due to
the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting from
a low number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Minor
to moderated degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 27 and 28 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected on 29 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 16100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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