[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 22 09:02:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 460 to 410 km/s and is expected
to continue to decrease to pre-coronal levels today, 22 May.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +4/-2 nT. Note, there is an emerging flux region designated
as active region 1072(S16E17), as well as an active region rotating
onto the solar disc, visible in EUV imagery.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 13 33323332
Learmonth 2 21111000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 2 21101100
Casey(Ant) 6 33211110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4121 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 6 Quiet
23 May 4 Quiet
24 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region as the solar wind speed returns to normal levels. Expect Quiet
conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect MUFs
to return to normal monthly predicted values as solar activity
on the visible disc increase slightly due to new and returning
sunspot regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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