[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 23 09:04:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 440 to 370 km/s. Expect the solar
wind speed to remain below 400 km/s for the next three days.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +3/-2 nT. Note, GOES 14 x-ray instrument indicates the
background flux levels have elevated slightly with the emergence
of active region 1072(S16E08).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 2 11120000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01110000
Casey(Ant) 3 12211110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3120 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 2 Quiet
24 May 4 Quiet
25 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region.
Expect Quiet conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect MUFs
to return to normal monthly predicted values as solar activity
on the visible disc increases slightly.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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