[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 21 09:23:04 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 520 to 460 km/s and is expected
to continue to decrease to pre-coronal levels today, 21 May.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-6 nT. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very
Low levels for the next three days. However, there is a possibility
that the previously numbered active region 1069 will rotate onto
the eastern limb and raise solar activity levels slightly, on
22-23 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 14 33323333
Learmonth 8 32223211
Canberra 3 11212200
Hobart 5 21212211
Casey(Ant) 8 33222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 64 (Active)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1112 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 May 6 Quiet
23 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 18 May and is
current for interval 19-21 May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Australian region due to an increase in
the solar wind speed. Expect conditions to gradually return to
quiet levels today, 21 May as the solar wind speed continues
to decrease to pre-coronal hole levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect this
trend to continue until sunspot numbers return to predicted levels.
Note, sunspot region 1069 is due to rotate onto the visible solar
disc on 22 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 78900 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list