[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 18 09:47:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 380 km/s and is
expected to remain in this range or slightly above during the
UT day, 18 May. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-5 nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels for the next three days. However, on 19 and
20 May the solar wind stream is expected to increase to the 450-500
km/s range due to recurrent coronal hole reaching its geo-effective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22122221
Darwin 5 21111222
Townsville 14 23333333
Learmonth 5 21121221
Canberra 2 01011120
Hobart 4 12111220
Casey(Ant) 9 22222332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 4 Quiet
19 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail today, 18 May.
On 19-20 May expect the geomagnetic field to become unsettled
with isolated cases of Active levels particularly at high latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 20 near predicted monthly values
19 May 20 near predicted monthly values
20 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed at low latitudes
due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting from
the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect this trend
to continue until sunspot numbers return to predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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