[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 19 09:22:50 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 340 and 380 km/s. However, expect
the solar wind stream to increase in speed during the UT day,
19 May, due to a recurrent coronal hole. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-7 nT. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Darwin 4 11222111
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 4 11222111
Canberra 2 01112000
Hobart 3 11222000
Casey(Ant) 5 22211121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 12 Unsettled
21 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 18 May and is
current for interval 19-21 May. Mostly quiet conditions were
observed over the UT day, 18 May. Over the next three days expect
the geomagnetic field to become Unsettled with isolated cases
of Active levels particularly at high latitudes due to an increase
in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 20 near predicted monthly values
20 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed at low latitudes
due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting from
the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect this trend
to continue until sunspot numbers return to predicted levels.
The Unsettled Geomagnetic activity over the next three days is
not expected to have a significant effect on the HF conditions
in the Australian Region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 70100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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