[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 17 09:25:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day
today. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around
380 to 340 km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of
the IMF stayed between +/-3 nT for most parts of the day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 13 33322333
Learmonth 4 12111211
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01001110
Casey(Ant) 5 13201211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 4 Quiet
18 May 3 Quiet
19 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with periods
of MUF depressions at times mainly on low and mid-laitude
locations. The resons for these depressions are not fully
understood at this stage but very low solar activity seems
to be one of them. Appearance of sporadic E-layers also
affected HF conditions on low and some mid latitude locations.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day to
near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day to
near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by
20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 6 near predicted monthly values
18 May 6 near predicted monthly values
19 May 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were
observed in the Aus/NZ regions today. The reasons for these
MUF depressions are not fully understood at this stage but
very low solar activity seems to be one of the possible reasons.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 88000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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